A post-honeymoon measles epidemic in Burundi: mathematical model-based analysis and implications for vaccination timing.

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PeerJ. 2016 Sep 15;4:e2476. doi: 10.7717/peerj.2476. eCollection 2016.

A post-honeymoon measles epidemic in Burundi: mathematical model-based analysis and implications for vaccination timing.

Corey KC¹ Noymer A².

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Abstract

Using a mathematical model with realistic demography we analyze a large outbreak of measles in Muyinga sector in rural Burundi in 1988-1989. We generate simulated epidemic curves and age × time epidemic surfaces which we qualitatively and quantitatively compare with the data. Our findings suggest that supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) should be used in places where routine vaccination cannot keep up with the increasing numbers of susceptible individuals resulting from population growth or from logistical problems such as cold chain maintenance. We use the model to characterize the relationship between SIA frequency and SIA age range necessary to suppress measles outbreaks. If SIAs are less frequent they must expand their target age range.