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That measles infection kills, and more so in early childhood, is not the challenge. The fact that in this day and age, we are still as imperfect as our fore fathers were in predicting war, should worry everyone interested in a measles free world. As we gear towards measles elimination/eradication, we must define the enemy in measles mortality, in outbreaks or otherwise. More details about measles CFR are available at: http://ije.oxfordjournals.org/content/38/1/192.long#fn-1
Abstract
Background: Global deaths from measles have decreased notably in past decades, due to both increases in immunization rates and decreases in measles case fatality ratios (CFRs). While some aspects of the reduction in measles mortality can be monitored through increases in immunization coverage, estimating the level of measles deaths (in absolute terms) is problematic, particularly since incidence-based methods of estimation rely on accurate measures of measles CFRs. These ratios vary widely by geographic and epidemiologic context and even within the same community from year-to-year.
Methods: To understand better the variations in CFRs, we reviewed community-based studies published between 1980 and 2008 reporting age-specific measles CFRs.
Results: The results of the search consistently document that measles CFRs are highest in unvaccinated children under age 5 years; in outbreaks; the lowest CFRs occur in vaccinated children regardless of setting. The broad range of case and death definitions, study populations and geography highlight the complexities in extrapolating results for global public health planning.
Conclusions: Values for measles CFRs remain imprecise, resulting in continued uncertainty about the actual toll measles exacts.