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Using a dynamic age-structured compartmental model of measles transmission this report simulates scenarios and estimates health outcomes and costs for measles mortality reduction and measles elimination in Uganda. Measles elimination in Uganda, as part of a global eradication program, is projected to be highly cost-effective. Details available at
http://jid.oxfordjournals.org/content/204/suppl_1/S116.long
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Measles control has succeeded worldwide, and many countries have substantially reduced incidence and mortality. This has led to consideration of the feasibility of measles elimination in Uganda within the context of global eradication. Before an elimination program is initiated, it is important to consider its potential economic impact, including its cost-effectiveness.
METHODS: Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were estimated for measles mortality reduction and measles elimination in Uganda. A dynamic age-structured compartmental model of measles transmission was used to simulate scenarios and estimate health outcomes and costs. The main outcome measures were costs, measles cases, measles deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and ICERs measured as cost per DALY averted through either the year 2030 or 2050.
RESULTS: Measles elimination by 2020 averted 130,232 measles cases, 3,520 measles deaths, and 106,330 DALYs through the year 2030, compared with the next best scenario (95% mortality reduction by 2015), and it was the most cost-effective strategy, with ICERs of $556 per DALY averted (2030 time horizon) and $284 per DALY averted (2050 time horizon).
CONCLUSIONS: Measles elimination in Uganda, as part of a global eradication program, is projected to be highly cost-effective and should be considered among the available policy options for dealing with the disease.